All Eyes On Russia’s Medvedev
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Forbes.com International Dmitry Medvedev is certain to win the presidential election on March 2. He is in many ways quite different from past Russian leaders. An urbane and youthful lawyer, the scion of a middle-class family, with no background in the structures of communism, Medvedev is likely to become the first truly post-Soviet president. Unlike Boris Yeltsin and Putin before him, Medvedev has spent almost all of his adulthood in a post-Soviet Russia. Unlike Putin, Medvedev is not a silovik (a former employee of the military or security services). Nor did he rise to prominence as a Communist leader, like Yeltsin. His student status gained him the standard exemption from conscription. He is a lawyer by training, and his working life has been spent in government and private business. The way in which he deals with subordinates reflects this background and training. He is known for attention to detail, and a cooperative working style. In his professional background and style, Medvedev resembles many Western politicians. Within the Putin camp, he is on the liberal wing and maintains that the E.U. is Russia’s long-standing main partner. None of this takes away from his patriotism, and the commitment he shares with Putin to a strong Russia: –Like many in the Putin team, Medvedev draws on Russian history in his public pronouncements. –Medvedev chose to be baptized into Russian Orthodoxy as an adult. His wife, and childhood sweetheart, Svetlana, chairs the advisory board of a prominent Russian Orthodox youth program. Her place on the board demonstrates not only a patriotic stance, but also a keen awareness on Medvedev’s part of the importance of networks and personal relations. Up until his presidential bid, Medvedev had never stood for election. He lacks the campaigning skills of a Western democratic politician. However, in today’s Russia, the main skill of a successful politician is networking and coalition-building. Medvedev will seek to move his team into key positions over his first year, just as he has sought to conduct a careful personnel policy in the past. Medvedev has good links with influential media owners: –One of them is Yury Kovalchuk, Putin’s long-term associate and the owner of Bank Rossiya, which in turn owns RenTV and other media outlets. –Another influential businessman with whom he has links is Alisher Usmanov, whose assets include the Kommersant newspaper. In the presidential election campaign, the minutiae of Medvedev’s personality have been brought to the fore to bring some color to his public image: –Friendly interviewers have quizzed him on questions such as how he keeps fit and his hobbies. –Much has been made of his penchant for British heavy rock bands. –Attention has been drawn to Medvedev as a family man. All observers, and Medvedev himself, are aware that Putin’s support is the main reason why he will become president. When Putin was going through his introductory interviews as a candidate, he named the unknown Medvedev as one of three people he trusted in politics. This has continued: –In the short term, there will be few, if any, disagreements between Medvedev and Putin. –Medvedev, like Putin, believes in a strong presidency. His character and background show an astute operator. As he grows into the role of president, there is likely to be a clash between this belief and his ability to act decisively as the “boss” of Prime Minister Putin. –Significant policy challenges lie ahead since the project of modernizing Russia means attacking vested interests in the bureaucracy, and Medvedev’s pro-Western inclinations clash with the hard-line views of the siloviki camp. The support of a powerful team with effective media and political teeth will be vital. So far the modern, business-like Medvedev has shown an ability to operate in modern, business-like Russia. However, there is a big difference between a respectable lawyer and someone who embodies the nation. The crucial question thus is whether Medvedev has the ability and character to be a national leader. |
Alteta Voastra!
Am in fata ziarul “Adevarul” din 03.Martie cu o excelenta analiza a Rusiei de azi facuta de Magdalena Boiangiu,pagina realizata de “Foreign Policy Romania”,mult mai profunda decat cea de la Forbes.
Imi vin in minte cele scrise de Alteta Voastra referitor la distinctia dintre libertate si democratie.In Rusia lui Putin libertatea exista,iar valorile sale,i.e.spiritul de raspundere,loialitatea fata de Mama Rusia, precum si folosirea judicioasa a resurselor imense ale acestei tari au dus la performante extraordinare,de exemplu salariul mediu a crescut de la 81 la 550 $,iar numarul saracilor a scazut de la 27% la 15%!De fapt Rusia nu avut niuciodata un regim democratic de tip euroatlantic nici pe timpul celui mai liberal tar,Nicolae al II-lea,care s-a prabusit pentru ca era poate prea liberal,ca sa citez pe unul din autorii mei preferati,fostul colonel GRU Viktor Suvorov.
Cred ca pentru guvernantii Romaniei ar fi un moment potrivit sa imbunatateasca relatiile cu Rusia si sa renunte la declaratiile belicoase din anii trecuti,care nu au adus decat pagube cetateanului de rand.Nu sunt un fan al Rusiei ,care ne-a provocat mari mizerii in trecut,cartea lui Karl Marx “Insemnari despre Romani”-publicata in 1964 si care a starnit un imens scandal-a si fost retrasa dupa cateva zile- este revelatoare privind comportamentul Rusiei Tariste(curios este faptul ca dupa Revolutia din ’89 nu a mai fost reeditata);cat despre ce ne-a facut Rusia Sovietica…nu mai are rost sa comentez.
Cu toate acestea o politica externa pragmatica si realista este in folosul Romaniei.A tine cu tot dinadinsul de proiectul Nabucco- am informatii ca este falit inca inainte de a fi demarat-este o politica pe care nu o inteleg.In schimb Bulgarii,Sarbii si Ungurii vor profita de proiectul South Stream,care ne ocoleste,si nu din ratiuni geografice ci…politice.Pretul il platim noi,cetatenii de rand,privati de o strategie energetica echilibrata si realista!
Cu toata consideratia,
Dr.Nicoara Ovidiu